The crypto market is bullish on Ether (ETH). In a surprise move, Ether (ETH) has rallied 81 percent in the previous three weeks. The market failed to predict this move which has implications for this Friday's options expiry.
On August 13, $430 million in contracts expire. A mere seven percent of that total consists of neutral-to-bullish put options above a price point of $3200. How this goes will depend on the price that day.
In the second quarter of 2021, Ether volume on Coinbase exceeded Bitcoin (BTC). Ten of the top 100 largest hedge funds are reportedly clients of Coinbase, a crypto platform.
For that and other reasons, it is believed that the recent rally was likely driven by the activities of institutional investors. As part of a general trend of institutional investors adopting such commodity, New York-based Neuberger Berman filed for a commodity-focused fund this week with plans to gain crypto exposure.
The data strongly suggest that professional traders did not expect Ether to rally above $3000. More than fifty percent of bets were between $2100 and $2900.
This lack of confidence that the bull market would hold means just $2 million worth of puts would pay off if Ether remains above $3200. If the price drops below $3100, that number jumps to $19 million and further rises to $27 million if Ether is below $3000 when contracts expire.
The situation gives bulls a clear advantage. Call (buy) options total $165 million dollara at or below $3200. This represents a net advantage of $165 million, which drops to $120 million if the price point falls below $3100.
The expectation is that bulls will use their advantage to keep control of this market and push for more gains. Bears are unlikely to put much pressure on the market based solely on the Friday expiry.
Although the recent "crypto-critical" infrastructure deal passed recently in the US Senate, the market remains quite strong. The current version fails to clarify the definition of a cryptocurrency broker, which is potentially harmful to the industry. However, it still needs to pass the House of Representatives.