There are a few indications that do a good job of predicting the sentiment of professional traders about Bitcoin. In order to determine if participants in the market are feeling bearish or bullish, analysts usually look at a vast technical analysis of the derivatives market. They may also add a mix of retail flow measures.
Over the past few months, some cryptocurrency exchanges created metrics that focus on what the top traders are doing. This highlights both short- and long-term positions. A 30-day high point on the long and short positions is available as a chart on the Binance website, for example. Although Binance just launched its platform 10 months ago, it is in the top five positions for Bitcoin open interest.
The three indicators of top trader position, options skew and contango futures show strong evidence that the big traders are feeling bullish for the short-term future. The charts also indicate that the biggest accounts have a net exposure that is about 12% greater than shorts. This is up 6% from three days ago.
Huobi shows a similar position. Before July 21, their long-to-short trade ratio was less than 1. Now it is 1.14. The premium for one-month contracts on Bitcoin futures has a positive level. It is at a 7% premium. This is up from 2% earlier in July.
Skew is another point to consider. It shows sentiment through options prices. Indicators around skew show that one-month options just turned negative. This implies more volatility. Traders will have to pay more insurance for a bull run. This change also suggests positive sentiment among the top traders.
With all of these indicators aligned toward positive Bitcoin price growth, there is a solid possibility of a short-term bull run on Bitcoin. At the same time as these indicators looked like a bull run, Bitcoin's price broke the $9,400 resistance level. It did that on July 22. The biggest traders are betting that the $10,000 price point could be tested by Bitcoin earlier than they previously thought. The alt coins are growing, too, giving a good chance for a big rally.